The 2024 Presidential Election results are official; Donald Trump has been elected the 47th President of the United States, over Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump won the electoral college with 312 electoral votes over Harris’ 226 electoral votes, plus a national popular vote victory. Heading into the race, seven states were considered “swing states”—states which the polling suggested could go to either candidate. These seven states were Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Trump and his campaign team were successful in a full sweep of the swing states, leaving the Harris campaign in the dust. Even more impressive was Trump flipping six out of the seven swing states from the 2020 election, North Carolina being the one Trump exception. This Republican victory brought along a huge rightward shift of the entire country, with even deep blue states shifting towards Trump. In order to fully understand the meaning of the outcome for this election in the swing states, let’s break down the voting results for each of the seven states.
Arizona:
Arizona was a state that President Biden was able to secure in his successful presidential bid back in 2020, beating out Trump by a margin of just 0.3 percentage points (49.36% to 49.06%). This Democratic victory was not consistent with how Arizona had voted in recent elections, as Republicans carried the state in every presidential election since 2000. Prior to Election Day, The New York Times’ poll had Trump leading Harris by a margin of three percentage points (50% to 47%). In the end, Trump was able to set the state back on its historical track, winning by a comfortable margin of 5.5 percentage points (52.2% to 46.7%), and its subsequent 11 electoral votes.
Nevada:
Nevada was a state that President Biden won in the 2020 election by a margin of 2.4 percentage points (50.1% to 47.7%), as well as a state that Hillary Clinton carried back in her unsuccessful 2016 presidential bid. Prior to Election Day, The New York Times’ poll had the race essentially even between Trump and Harris, with Trump holding a less than one percentage point lead. Nevertheless, Trump was able to flip the recently consistent Democratic stronghold—as Republicans haven’t won Nevada since the 2004 election—by a margin of 3.1 percentage points (50.6% to 47.5%), and secure the state’s 6 electoral votes.
Georgia:
Prior to Election Day, The New York Times’ poll had Trump leading Harris in Georgia by a slim margin of just one percentage point (49% to 48%). In this election, Georgia was an intensely watched state as it was at the heart of 2020 election fraud conspiracies—Trump was being criminally indicted in the state for his attempts to overturn the election results, believing President Biden had been undemocratically named the victor of the state. Despite this, Biden was declared the official winner in 2020, securing the popular vote by an extremely tight margin of just 0.23 percentage points (49.47% to 49.24%), flipping Georgia blue for the first time since the 1992 election. Despite this feat, the momentum did not appear to hold up as Trump—just like he did in 2016—won the state by a margin of 2.2 percentage points (50.7% to 48.5%), acquiring its 16 electoral votes.
North Carolina:
North Carolina was the only one of the seven swing states that Trump carried in the 2020 election, by a margin of 1.3 percentage points (49.9% to 48.6%)—also carrying the state in 2016. Throughout the recent decades, North Carolina has been a safe state for Republicans, with the party winning the state in 10 out of the past 11 presidential elections (not including 2024). Prior to Election Day, The New York Times’ poll had Trump and Harris even, with Trump leading by less than one percentage point. However, due to the state’s voting history, it didn’t come as a huge surprise that Trump defeated Harris by a margin of 3.4 percentage points (51.1% to 47.7%), adding 16 electoral votes to his name.
Pennsylvania:
Coming into this election, Pennsylvania was viewed as the “most important” swing state to win as it had the highest number of electoral votes out of the seven swing states—with 19. Both Trump and Harris spent a significant amount of time campaigning in the state, notably being the place where Trump faced his first assassination attempt in the city of Butler. In 2020, President Biden won Pennsylvania by a margin of 1.2 percentage points (50.0% to 48.8%), flipping the state from the 2016 election—which was the only time Republicans carried Pennsylvania in the past eight presidential elections. Prior to Election Day, The New York Times’ poll had Trump and Harris even, with Harris ahead by less than one percentage point. In the end, Trump led the state by a margin of 1.8 percentage points (50.4% to 48.6%), and consequently was granted 19 electoral votes, being the votes he needed to push him over the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency.
Michigan:
As the election approached, Democrats had increasing fears that Michigan’s large Arab and Muslim population would “boycott” their vote for Harris due to their dissatisfaction with how the Biden-Harris administration had been handling the war in Gaza and overall rising tensions in the Middle East. Back in 2020, President Biden beat out Trump by a margin of 2.8 percentage points (50.6% to 47.8%), securing a Democratic victory in the state for the seventh time in the past eight elections—with the only loss being to Trump in 2016. Prior to Election Day, The New York Times’ poll had Harris with less than a percentage point lead over Trump. Although it is unclear yet whether these specific demographics played a significant role in Harris’ loss, Trump did win Michigan by a margin of 1.4 percentage points (49.7% to 48.3%), securing its 15 electoral votes.
Wisconsin:
Wisconsin, which borders Minnesota, was a state where Democrats hoped the selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as Harris’ vice president would strengthen their chances of victory. Looking back at the 2020 election, Biden defeated Trump in Wisconsin by an exceedingly small margin of 0.63 percentage points (49.45% to 48.82%), flipping the state back to blue from the 2016 election. 2016 was the first presidential election since 1984 in which Republicans carried Wisconsin. Prior to Election Day, The New York Times’ poll had Harris leading Trump by one percentage point (49% to 48%). Nonetheless, similar to other blue wall states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, Harris was defeated, with Trump winning Wisconsin by a slender margin of 0.9 percentage points (49.7% to 48.8%), receiving the state’s 10 electoral votes.
On January 6, 2025, all members of the House of Representatives and the Senate will convene in a joint session, led by Vice President Harris as the President of the Senate, to certify these election results, officially naming Trump as the 47th President of the United States. Then, on January 20, 2025, Trump will take the oath of office and be inaugurated into the role of president, as only the second president in U.S. history, after Grover Cleveland, to serve two non-consecutive terms.